ASSETPRICINGPUZZLES (256206)

  https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/256206

  FP7 (2007-2013)

  Cross Sectional Asset Pricing Puzzles: An Equilibrium Perspective

  Marie Curie Action: "Reintegration Grants" (FP7-PEOPLE-2009-RG)

 

  2010-07-01 Start Date (YY-MM-DD)

  2014-06-30 End Date (YY-MM-DD)

  € 100,000 Total Cost

  Description

This research project attempts to resolve puzzling relations in the cross section of expected stock returns within a rational equilibrium framework. In particular, empirical work shows that expected stock returns are negatively correlated, both statistically and economically, with firm-level (i) dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts, (ii) idiosyncratic volatility, and (iii) credit risk. Such negative relations are apparently at odds with the important concept that systematic risk should always be positively associated with expected payoff. This project shows that the dispersion, idiosyncratic volatility, and credit risk effects naturally emerge in an economy in which the risk is higher when cash flows are weighted towards the longer run. Such economy is characterized by recursive preferences and persistent dividend and consumption growth rates. The equilibrium cross section of expected returns is driven by exposure to a single factor - economic growth. Moreover, firm level beta (factor loading) is time varying and evolves with the duration of cash flows. Ultimately, firms with high dispersion, high credit risk, and high volatility have relatively low cash flow duration and thus low beta. Therefore, such firms have low systematic risk and high idiosyncratic risk, which explains why they earn less. Indeed, the dispersion, idiosyncratic volatility, and credit risk effects are perfectly consistent with the risk-return tradeoff because only systematic risk is compensated in equilibrium asset pricing.

  Complicit Organisations

1 Israeli organisation participates in ASSETPRICINGPUZZLES.